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Wednesday, October 27, 2010


The articles sounding the death-knell of the progressive candidates seem to forget the fact that we have ranked-choice voting and a growing population who vote first along ethnic lines.

First, I think that Beyond Chron's analysis that the progressive vote is too fractured for a progressive to win it all is wrong. I think quite the opposite - I think the split on the moderate side is so fractured that it creates an opening for the top progressive candidate to hang on long enough to pick up the #2 and #3 votes of all the other progressives who get eliminated first.

The moderate group is pretty evenly split among Moss, Sweet, Cohen, and Enea, and unlike on the progressive side, I see all of them getting an equally (within 10-20%) strong showing compared to one another. They'll stay in the rounds of elimination until close to the bitter end, while the candidates getting knocked out along the way will slowly add more and more to the top progressive's totals, and not as much to theirs. Remember, Marlene Tran has suggested her supporters pick Tony Kelly as their #2. Tran deservedly commands a huge amount of respect in the Chinese community, and her word will be heeded by many. Of course, the more conservative bent of many Chinese voters means that many will ignore Tran and throw their support behind the moderates, but again, their votes get split, although Moss probably comes out ahead here because of, sad to say, racial reasons, despite Sweet trying hard to woo these voters.

I've also been hearing a lot of grumbling about Moss, Cohen, and Sweet for their various alleged and confirmed transgressions, lack of experience, and general knowledge gaps. Although anectodal, people looking for a moderate who has a voting record on important land-use issues, but who is otherwise untainted, are looking to Enea, and she may very well come up the middle here.

The above all said, Moss could still pull this out. In running so hard against him in their reporting, the Bay Guardian may have shot progressives and all other, more palatable moderates in the foot, steering moderate voters to rebel and vote for Moss en masse out of pure spite. Moss has done a good job of working the 'poor me, the Guardian is out to get me' angle. He can tell his supporters and those on the fence that he's done all he can to placate them, but they still keep coming after him. Poor Steve. What they've ended up doing is rally his base, as it were, and galvanized his supporters against the progressives in the race. They've given him nearly daily press coverage that he couldn't have gotten in his own paper. He's played the Guardian like a fiddle, and will have them as much as Coates and all the anti-tenant forces for his victory, should he win.


  1. So much for the "non-partisan" blog idea. I think this should have been posted in the section called "D10 Politics in the News This Week" under "comments."

    And, yes, I did see the word "editorial."

  2. Let's not forget that there are moderates who will factor into ranked choice, namely Stephen Weber, who without much of a team has garnered decent name-recognition (for better or worse) from his "Vehicle for Change," and Teresa Duque, who in just a few weeks of active campaigning has eclipsed the fundraising of all but five other candidates. Neither of their #2s will be going to Kelly or any other Progressive. Second, remember we're going to have a lot of exhausted ballots here, as some voters won't make second or third choices, and others will spend all three choices on candidates who get dropped. Also consider that neither Moss nor Kelly has any foothold in Bayview, while Enea has plenty. If money is all that matters, Moss wins in a landslide. If not, look for the candidate with the most crossover appeal throughout our moderate district, who's been able to raise money from all three ZIP codes, and who has earned support from a variety of other candidates, not just those in their own political or ethnic camp.

  3. Well, I thought about doing that, but I can see this breaking several ways, and tried to write what I did with that in mind. I suggest a way I see someone like Kelly, Moss, or Enea to win, so yes, it's still not partisan in my view. So, I figured an editorial was appropriate. Sorry you didn't read it in the was it was intended.

  4. Moss and Kelly are entirely different planets. how is that logic follow?

  5. As I understand it, Potrero turns out the most voters. This would seem to benefit Kelly and Moss, but it depends on how much more Potrero goes to the polls, or if there is a change in which neighborhood sends the most voters to the polls. This is certainly a fascinating race to watch, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

  6. Just wondering if your thoughts have changed. The latest piece from BeyondChron has it Moss vs Cohen. Of course, as you mentioned a while back, there may be a dark horse. I believe you were hoping it was Enea but now you're concerned it may be Duque. You know the Middle Eastern curse - May you live in interesting times!

  7. BeyondChron's Randy Shaw has just uploaded his prognostications for tomorrow's election.

    I see it either coming down to Moss/Cohen or Kelly/Cohen. I'm thinking it'll be the latter.

    Regardless, it's going to be a wild ride tomorrow (and the next few days to come), and no one really knows how it'll play out until it's all over. It's really just a parlor game until a winner is declared.


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