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Friday, November 5, 2010

Preliminary RCV...

SF Elections has Malia Cohen winning over Tony Kelly (although unlike the other supervisor races, they don't seem to be 'calling it' yet, so they're thinking that it could change) after 19 rounds of elimination. If this holds, then it's exactly what I figured - if Kelly couldn't pull it out with four or five left in the race, either Sweet or Cohen would win. I suspect it's actually between Cohen and Sweet at this point, as in Round 18, Cohen's less than 200 votes ahead of Sweet, so in theory, if things break only slightly differently in a recount, then she could conceivably win. Of course, it could conceivably break such that Kelly holds on, too.


They have it coming down. in order:
1. Cohen
2. Kelly
3. Sweet
4. Tran
5. Moss

These numbers are preliminary, and could change - stay tuned!!


  1. Great news!

    Either Malia or Tony.

    Just great, can't buy an election thankfully!!

  2. So, it looks like Cohen has more 2nd/3rd votes than Sweet, shifting her up. But, basically the result for Tony is as I predicted, the combination of Sweet/Cohen votes would knock him out.

    Any word how close it is? That could make a difference. Does Cohen hit 50%+ without eliminating the other 4, or does it go down to eliminating Sweet before she goes over the top? Does she win with 54%, or 50.01%. IF it's really close, things could definitely change as additional votes come in. If she ran away with it, I think the game is over.

  3. Sorry - just saw the link.

    So, Sweet's votes put Cohen over the top, Tony going down pretty much as I predicted. But it's still close. I believe there are still hundreds, if not thousands of provisional and unread ballots from D10. Tony lost this dry run by a mere 152 votes. He could pick up more votes and win. Or, Sweet could pick up more and win. Maybe Moss. I think Tran is out. They counted a bunch of VV ballots yesterday, which is included in this count. We still have other neighborhoods to go, and that will only hurt her.

  4. Hey Dale. So if more votes are to be counted, how do they "take away" votes until all the votes are in? The second and third choice votes have been distributed, haven't they?

  5. Anon -

    In the dry run they do it as though all the votes are in. That's why things could change. With new votes, and only a few hundred between candidates, things could change radically - or not at all.

    My security word: turtive
    Turtive: adj., exhibiting turtle-like characteristics. (Yes, I'm making this up.)

  6. This is just a preliminary run of the IRV calculation, based on the ballots counted so far. They'll go back to the drawing board and finish counting the remaining #1s before running the IRV calculation again, for the final results. The preliminary IRV run gives some sense of how the second- and third-choice votes from candidates #6-21 will affect the top five, but the order of the top five could shift dramatically by the time the remaining votes are counted. Also the amount of votes given to down-list candidates will increase, making for bigger jumps after each round of elimination.


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