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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Top five

Initial numbers show that fewer than 10000 votes were cast in D10 for supervisor.

The top five vote-getters in round 1 of counting are:

Tony Kelly 1279
Lynette Sweet 1160
Malia Cohen 1150
Steve Moss 1089
Marlene Tran 944

It likely won't be until Friday that we maybe know who won. I still see it coming down to Kelly and either Cohen or Sweet.


  1. I think you are right Chris.

    Seems very unlikely that the lower down the pack will have Moss as second or third.

    The good part is that the right wing business interests spent $300K on Moss, that translates to $275 per vote, nearly four times what Whitman spent. He only received 100 more votes over the signatures received months ago, pretty ominous sign.

    Good to know that it isn't a certainty that you can buy an election!

  2. There are 38,405 register voters in D10. We turned out 9,568 on Nov 2nd. Thats's about 25%. To get to the 51% needed to win the race, someone will need about 4,800 votes. When its all over, we'll have a Supervisor elected with about 12% D10 voters support.
    VERY sad D10.

  3. Actually, it's even sadder than this. For instance, when Jennison gets knocked out, suppose 16 of his 36 ballots have no #2 marked. Then the total number of ballots left in the pool goes down to 9568-16=9552. Also, suppose all the voters for Jennison marked Franklin as their #2, and no one as #3. Franklin then gets eliminated next, and all of Jennison's ballots are exhausted and are removed from the pool entirely. This is where it gets so complicated trying to figure out how many ballots will be left in the end to decide the race.

    My prediction is that someone will win with around 3000 votes, which is about 32% of the total votes cast, but only 8% of registered voters.

  4. Chris/

    I called the election office and they say they'll be an update at 4pm.

    Do the numbers posted include mail in votes that arrived early?

    Also, they told me that mail in that were dropped off before 8 pm yesterday moved to city hall and would be counted over the coming days.

    The only thing that pissed me off yesterday was that one of the election workers was getting stoned across the street in the evening, same guy took forever to put the papers together.

  5. If your numbers are correct then D10 might just be a great case for rethinking Instant Runoff Voting. Not really "instant" and not at all a "runoff". Best of luck to the top tier.

  6. I haven't looked to see where these already-counted ballots come from, but I suspect they include absentee ballots that were mailed in before yesterday. Still to be counted would be absentee ballots dropped off yesterday at polling places and provisional ballots. Friday, when all those have been added up, they'll start doing the IRV process.

    re the stoner election worker, yeah, well, at least he didn't steal 75 ballots like that poll worker in the Excelsior! I did hear of one polling station where voters were being asked for ID, which is actually not allowed.

  7. I agree with the comment about rethinking the Instant Runoff Voting process. Perhaps it can be edited to "six or more" candidates. If there are six or more then there's a runoff. If there are fewer than 6 then the IRV makes sense.

  8. The numbers are very disappointing. The district that needs the most love (especially Viz Valley and the Bayview) reminds me of the PLO. "They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Those of us who worked so hard to get out the vote can at least look at ourselves in the mirror. The rest, have only themselves to blame for all the mess. Shame, really.

  9. You are right, very disappointing that anyone would take the right for granted.

  10. Chris - the other ballots that haven't been counted, and may take the longest, are ballots the reading machine rejected, and now have to be carefully reviewed by hand. Not exactly "hanging chads". It could be anything from a pen color the scanners couldn't read, to really sloppy penmanship.


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