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Saturday, November 6, 2010

Feeling Wonky

If you're really feeling wonky and want to dive into the election results further, try downloading the Excel spreadsheet to get a sense of where votes are going as candidates are eliminated.

http://www.sfelections.org/results/20101102/d10.html

Some interesting things pop out at me from this:

First, I'm glad to see (as evidenced by the low number of exhausted ballots for these candidates) that many of the people who voted for Hampton, Donaldson, Morris, and the other 'community candidates' ignored the candidates' pleas to 'vote for me and only me'. Also interesting that Sweet and Cohen picked up most of these candidates' votes, indicating a sense that they were perceived to also be 'community candidates'.

Eric Smith's endorsement of Malia Cohen didn't seem to help get her many of his votes, as more of his votes went to Kelly than Cohen.

Nearly 80% of DeWitt Lacy's votes go to Malia Cohen, suggesting either a racial or perhaps youth bent to these votes. The progressiveness of Tony Kelly made him the second-highest beneficiary of Lacy's votes.

Almost half of Teresa Duque's votes get picked up by Marlene Tran, despite Duque bad-mouthing Tran for months. This could indicate a racially-based preference, one that should be strongly acknowledged by those running in future races. If Duque hadn't been in the race at all, Tran would have started out with far and away more votes than any other candidate.

Moss' votes go to Kelly 2:1 over Cohen and 2:1 over Sweet, an interesting commentary that people seemed to have voted 'Potrero Hill' over politics, as Moss is more closely aligned with both Sweet and Cohen than Kelly, by far.

Tran's votes also go 2:1 to Kelly over Cohen and 2:1 to Kelly over Sweet, suggesting that her endorsement of him as her #2 paid off.

In Round 19, Sweet's votes go to Cohen 3:1 over Kelly, which is what puts her over the top and makes her the leader in the race. But, with only 150 votes between the first and second place candidates, it would only take Kelly picking up 10 more votes than Cohen each round for him to pull it out, but that may actually be more difficult than one would think.

Keep watching!! There are still plenty of ballots to be counted (late absentee and provisional), so this could all change.

3 comments:

  1. Something is odd in round 12. Looks like both Enea and Calloway are both eliminated. Can someone explain this?

    Duque really does not pick up many votes as the rounds move forward. To me this means that she only appealed to a small segment of the voters even though she did surprisingly well. Duque’s supporters also supported Tran. Surprised that his happened given the negativity. This speaks to ethnic identity in candidate selection.

    Lacy’s had a modest gain in the middle round. If the lower tier candidates had not run, I bet he would have done much better (if he had run a better campaign in addition)

    Tran or Duque could have won this, if one of them had not run and broaden their base.

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  2. I think that neighborhood relationship to a candidate is important. As a Potrero Hill resident, I felt I knew both Kelly and Moss better than other candidates, and both seemed like intelligent, capable, reasonable people to me. So, even though their politics are somewhat different, I can see where many Moss supporters on the hill could have easily had Kelly as their 2nd or 3rd choice (and same the other way around).

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  3. Dale, if Moss seems reasonable you must have been living in a cave.

    Aside from his numerous conflicts, the mega money, highly questionable statements, multiple shady business transactions coupled with incredibly suspicious profit / non profit fund washing it is amazing that someone with this record could get a vote.

    The good part for our district is that Moss managed to tap mega money, keep reporting of any details out of the press, avoid answering anything, (except SFBG) and still bomb.

    Fortunately we have a district that still has enough people that question and don't believe a highly orchestrated campaign. This should hopefully help us in the future and keep the same type of candidates away.

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