I spent some time this weekend with the latest numbers from Sunday, and applying knowledge of how many votes go to candidates as gleaned from the preliminary RCV count that came out Friday, determined that Cohen would still be ahead of Kelly at the end, but by a razor thin margin of 50.1% to 49.9%, and separated by only 22 votes in my projected tally. In my calculations, Tran now takes 3rd, Sweet 4th, Moss 5th. My modified RCV-D10.xls
Again, my calculations are guestimates. As new tallies come in, things will likely change again, but Kelly and Cohen are pulling away from the pack at this point. If it ends up close enough, look for Kelly to ask for and get a recount, too.
FYI, the next preliminary RCV results run will occur on Tuesday, Nov 9, and the final tally has to be certified by Nov 30.
Great job Chris.
ReplyDeleteI trust everyone else finds this as painful as I do.
Wish it was just over.
Outstanding work, Chris. Any sense of how many votes remain uncounted and which neighborhoods they may come from?
ReplyDeleteI think, in some ways, if trends continue (and they may not), both Tran and Moss have to be tentatively pleased, while Cohen should be getting worried. That is to say, if additional counting of the votes continue to favor Tran strongly, as it appears it has, she may eek something out. But, more likely, her additional votes may translate into the additional margin Kelly needs to cover that possible 22-vote gap.
In any case, what a squeeker! Whoever wins, there will be a recount. Being one of the top 5 candidates must be a nail-biting experience at this point.
I think my model was slightly flawed, but having fixed it, the result ends up the same, although the final vote spread between Kelly and Cohen is slightly higher (119 votes), resulting in 50.9% to 49.1%. Not sure how many votes remain uncounted.
ReplyDeleteI believe Chris may be smarter than all of us.
ReplyDeleteBy the time this is over it will be time for the next election and he'll get us to pay as you go, at least he'll retire rich!
Seriously, great job, appreciate all the input, time and work you have dedicated.
You truly have helped make our little D10 democracy work.
Well done.