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Monday, November 15, 2010

New Numbers

I've been told (h/t Steve Moss) that all the absentee ballots have been counted, and now it's just the provisional ballots that are left.

And again, it's changed in the initial round of counting, but if the RCV projections from today hold, Malia Cohen still holds on to win a fairly convincing victory.

BeyondChron has a good analysis of how a candidate can move from fifth place in the raw numbers up to first after ranked-choice voting.

The numbers as of 11/14...





11/04 11/05 11/06 11/07 11/08 11/09 11/10 11/11 11/14
Total Votes 10764 11973 13666 15272 15368 15520 15661 16177 16284
Tran 1166 (10.83%) 1309 (10.93%) 1595 (11.67%) 1834 (12.01%) 1855 (12.07%) 1857 (12.04%) 1897 (12.11%) 1947 (12.04%) 1964 (12.06%)
Kelly 1375 (12.77%) 1504 (12.56%) 1644 (12.03%) 1860 (12.18%) 1870 (12.17%) 1889 (12.24%) 1907 (12.18%) 1951 (12.06%) 1962 (12.05%)
Sweet 1300 (12.08%) 1451 (12.12%) 1629 (11.92%) 1823 (11.94%) 1829 (11.90%) 1837 (11.91%) 1867 (11.92%) 1931 (11.94%) 1939 (11.91%)
Cohen 1254 (11.65%) 1377 (11.50%) 1557 (11.39%) 1732 (11.34%) 1737 (11.30%) 1743 (11.30%) 1771 (11.31%) 1856 (11.47%) 1862 (11.43%)
Moss 1198 (11.13%) 1364 (11.39%) 1527 (11.17%) 1726 (11.30%) 1738 (11.31%) 1743 (11.30%) 1772 (11.32%) 1821 (11.26%) 1834 (11.26%)
Duque 778 (7.23%) 904 (7.55%) 1129 (8.26%) 1246 (8.16%) 1258 (8.19%) 1258 (8.15%) 1279 (8.15%) 1330 (8.22%) 1347 (8.27%)
Lacy 793 (7.37%) 867 (7.24%) 1007 (7.37%) 1125 (7.37%) 1128 (7.34%) 1131 (7.33%) 1149 (7.34%) 1184 (7.32%) 1195 (7.34%)
Jackson 645 (5.99%) 718 (6.00%) 834 (6.10%) 929 (6.08%) 936 (6.09%) 944 (6.12%) 961 (6.14%) 991 (6.13%) 996 (6.12%)
Enea 324 (3.01%) 365 (3.05%) 424 (3.10%) 469 (3.07%) 470 (3.06%) 473 (3.07%) 484 (3.09%) 500 (3.09%) 502 (3.08%)
Smith 295 (2.74%) 319 (2.66%) 352 (2.58%) 396 (2.59%) 397 (2.58%) 399 (2.59%) 402 (2.57%) 414 (2.56%) 415 (2.55%)
Calloway 272 (2.53%) 308 (2.57%) 338 (2.47%) 354 (2.32%) 355 (2.31%) 355 (2.30%) 356 (2.27%) 368 (2.27%) 368 (2.26%)
Wesley-Smith 239 (2.22%) 268 (2.24%) 291 (2.13%) 324 (2.12%) 328 (2.13%) 328 (2.13%) 330 (2.11%) 342 (2.11%) 344 (2.11%)
Weber 221 (2.05%) 240 (2.00%) 254 (1.86%) 266 (1.74%) 267 (1.74%) 270 (1.74%) 271 (1.73%) 278 (1.72%) 281 (1.73%)
Morris 202 (1.88%) 210 (1.75%) 240 (1.76%) 259 (1.70%) 260 (1.69%) 260 (1.69%) 260 (1.66%) 268 (1.66%) 272 (1.67%)
Rhodes 173 (1.61%) 185 (1.55%) 204 (1.49%) 214 (1.40%) 218 (1.42%) 218 (1.41%) 221 (1.41%) 227 (1.40%) 229 (1.41%)
Hampton 134 (1.24%) 149 (1.24%) 159 (1.16%) 181 (1.19%) 184 (1.20%) 184 (1.19%) 189 (1.21%) 194 (1.20%) 196 (1.20%)
Donaldson 129 (1.20%) 143 (1.19%) 159 (1.16%) 176 (1.15%) 177 (1.15%) 177 (1.15%) 178 (1.14%) 186 (1.15%) 188 (1.15%)
Norman 103 (0.96%) 113 (0.94%) 125 (0.91%) 139 (0.91%) 139 (0.90%) 140 (0.91%) 142 (0.91%) 151 (0.93%) 152 (0.93%)
Joshua 77 (0.72%) 84 (0.78%) 91 (0.67%) 102 (0.67%) 103 (0.67%) 103 (0.67%) 104 (0.66%) 112 (0.69%) 12 (0.69%)
Franklin 46 (0.43%) 53 (0.44%) 59 (0.43%) 66 (0.43%) 67 (0.44%) 67 (0.43%) 67 (0.43%) 69 (0.43%) 69 (0.42%)
Jennison 40 (0.37%) 42 (0.35%) 48 (0.35%) 51 (0.33%) 52 (0.34%) 52 (0.34%) 53 (0.34%) 57 (0.35%) 57 (0.35%)